Deepseek Ignites Alibaba's Ambition

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The recent resurgence of Alibaba Group has not only marked a pivotal moment for the company itself but has also captured the attention of investors globally, as the narrative surrounding Chinese technology stocks drastically shifts toward opportunity rather than riskThis transformation comes in the wake of DeepSeek's entry into the Chinese tech landscape, igniting renewed interest in artificial intelligence and its potential benefits.

In the past year, Alibaba's stock has emerged as one of the top performers among large Chinese tech companies, outperforming rivals like Tencent and JD.comSpecifically, shares of Alibaba listed in Hong Kong witnessed a remarkable rise, trading at approximately 113.80 HKD recently, representing a staggering 46% increase since it hit a low in early JanuaryThe company's market capitalization has surged close to 87 billion USD, reflecting a noteworthy performance compared to the broader Hang Seng Technology Index, which only saw a 25% increase during the same timeframe.

This dramatic rebound paints a picture of Alibaba's unexpected revival, overcoming challenges that stemmed from strict regulatory policies and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that dampened consumer demandOnce a darling of the market, Alibaba’s popularity dwindled; however, as its stock prices soar, there is a burgeoning investor optimism centered on the company's efforts to develop its artificial intelligence services and platformsThe recent unveiling of technologies by DeepSeek, a promising Chinese AI startup, only added to this amplified interest.

On a significant note, Alibaba's stock gained further traction when reports surfaced about a collaboration with tech giant Apple to introduce AI functionalities in the Chinese marketThis partnership not only validates Alibaba's position but also showcases its strategic moves as it navigates through the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Andy Wong, the head of Asia-Pacific Investment and ESG at Solomon Group, commented on the situation, stating, “The emergence of DeepSeek has acted as a new catalyst related to artificial intelligence in the Chinese tech sector

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We believe Alibaba's mid-term profit growth prospects are becoming increasingly realistic and robust.” This sentiment reflects a broader understanding that the landscape of Chinese tech is shifting, with AI serving as a powerful driver for growth and transformation.

2025 is shaping up to be a crucial year for Alibaba, as it sees renewed leadership under Joe Tsai and Eddie Wu—two of Jack Ma's original deputies when he founded the companyWith years of regulatory investigations and sluggish post-pandemic conditions having taken their toll, Tsai and Wu have managed to steer the company back to its roots, focusing on consolidating and optimizing its core commercial operationsThis return to fundamentals is key to regaining the trust of investors who are now looking for stability in an increasingly volatile market.

Moreover, the company's commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence has remarkable implicationsFollowing the debut of ChatGPT, Alibaba has positioned itself to invest in some of China's most promising AI startups, including Moonshot and ZhizhuAn essential aspect of this strategy is Alibaba's focus on expanding its cloud business, which supports AI developmentBy reducing prices significantly, the company aims to recover clients that may have drifted to competitors during turbulent times.

Initial results from this strategy began to emerge in January when Alibaba released benchmark results proclaiming that its Qwen 2.5 Max model achieved favorable scores in comparison to competitors like Meta Platforms' LLaMA and DeepSeek's V3 modelThis status as a leader in the AI domain has aligned Alibaba alongside formidable players such as Tencent and ByteDance, highlighting its competitiveness in an innovative sector.

However, despite these promising advancements, significant challenges remainOne major hurdle for Chinese AI companies revolves around the slow adoption of artificial intelligence by local consumers and businesses, compounded by a hesitancy to invest in these services

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Many remain skeptical about the tangible benefits that AI can provide, which could hinder widespread utilization and monetization efforts.

In a detailed analysis, JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao emphasized that hedge funds and long investors are viewing AI as a potential inflection point for AlibabaInterest is growing around the valuation of Alibaba's cloud business and the possible advantages of large language models. “The AI narrative is seen as a potential driver for re-rating, but there are concerns surrounding the monetization of AI capabilities,” he wrote, which underscores the caution that still pervades investor sentiment.

Furthermore, the cloud business growth for Chinese tech giants has lagged behind their American counterpartsAnalysts estimate that for the quarter ending last December, Alibaba's cloud revenue grew just 9.7% year-over-year, while Baidu’s cloud revenues increased by a mere 7.7%. In stark contrast, cloud services from industry leaders Amazon and Microsoft noted impressive growth rates of 19% and 31%, respectivelyThis discrepancy raises eyebrows regarding Alibaba's competitive stance in a crucial tech sector.

Alibaba is set to release its earnings report next Thursday, which will provide a fresh opportunity for investors to gauge the company's progress in artificial intelligence as well as the outlook of its cloud servicesThis comes at a time when trading activity in derivatives is intensifying, with options volume in Hong Kong soaring to twice the 20-day average—reaching its highest levels in four monthsSignificantly, over 110,000 call options have changed hands, while put options traded above 74,000, demonstrating a robust interest in positioning against potential declines.

Even after the recent rebound, Alibaba's valuation continues to attract some investors, as its anticipated price-to-earnings ratio remains at 12.2, which is lower than the historical average of 14.6 over the past five years

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